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Jobs up; retail mixed

The job market is looking up, but consumers remain cautious.  Reports released Wednesday hinted at improvement in the economy.

EMPLOYMENT

Companies in the U.S. private sector added 32,000 jobs in April, according to the ADP employment report.  The ADP report also adjusted its February and March reports to reflect job gains.

An analysis by the Treasury Department’s top economist was upbeat.  In testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, Alan Krueger; the assistant Treasury secretary for economic policy, said the labor market is beginning to show signs of “sustained improvement.”

The Labor Department’s report Friday is forecast to show that payrolls rose by 189,000 in April and that the unemployment rate was 9.7 percent.

SHOPPING

Consumers bought less clothing and shoes than they did a year ago but more electronics and luxury items, providing mixed results for April, according to MasterCard Advisors’ SpendingPulse.  The month’s sales were hurt by Easter falling early this year, which boosted March business.   Rainy weather also contributed to mixed results in April.

On Thursday, major retailers are scheduled to report their same-store sales for stores open at least a year.  That is considered a key indicator of a merchant’s health.  Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters predict a 1.6 peercent increase for April, after a 9.1 percent gain in March.

Source: The Associated Press

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Spending pickup predicted

Consumer spending probably accelerated in the first quarter, shepherding the U.S. expansion into 2010, economists project a report this week will show.

Also, gross domestic product grew at a 3.4 percent annual pace after increasing at a 5.6 percent rate in the last three months of 2009, according to the median estimate of 67 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Household purchases may have climbed by the most in three years.

“Jobs are the critical component of the entire scenario,” said Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit. “The signs do point to impending employment gains.”

Improving demand boosts the odds the recovery will be self-sustaining, benefiting companies such as Starbucks, as rising sales lead to more hiring, which in turn fosters even more spending. A lack of inflation gives Federal Reserve policymakers the green light to keep interest rates low when they meet this week to ensure the world’s largest economy continues to grow.

Central bankers will keep the target for the benchmark borrowing cost on overnight loans between banks near zero at the end of their two-day meeting Wednesday, economists surveyed forecast.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on April 14 that high unemployment and weak construction were among the “significant restraints” on the pace of growth. At their March 16 meeting, central bankers said economic conditions will likely warrant “exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.”

The Commerce Department’s advance estimate of first-quarter GDP is due Friday. The world’s largest economy grew at the fastest pace in six years in the last three months of 2009 after expanding at a 2.2 percent rate in the third quarter.

For 2009, the economy shrank 2.4 percent in 2009, the worst single-year performance since 1946.

Consumer spending probably increased at a3.1 percent annual rate last quarter, almost double the 1.6 percent pace of the previous three months, the GDP report is also projected to show.

Households led the expansion last quarter, taking the baton from gains in production that reflected efforts to stabilize stockpiles. A swing to smaller inventory reductions accounted for 3.8 percentage points of growth in the fourth quarter. Households may also become more optimistic as the labor market improves. A Conference Board report on Tuesday may show its measure of consumer confidence rose this month to 53.5 from 52.5.

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If you would like a free financial/debt evaluation, go to http://www.freeattorneyconsultation.info or call us directly at 866-868-2160.